U.S. Regulators Open Three New Probes into Polymarket Activity, Including Biden Pardons and Iran Conflict Trades

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has disclosed three previously unreported investigations into trading activity on the cryptocurrency‑based prediction market Polymarket, focusing on wagers tied to potential presidential pardons, the ongoing conflict in Iran, and alleged insider trading involving Google.

Polymarket, which allows users to place bets on the outcomes of real‑world events, falls under the CFTC’s jurisdiction because many of its contracts are classified as binary options. The agency has been monitoring the platform since its emergence, but the newly revealed inquiries mark the first time it has formally opened separate cases on specific political and corporate topics.

The first two investigations target market positions related to two high‑profile political questions: whether President Joe Biden will issue pardons in the upcoming holiday season and the likelihood of a major escalation in the Iran‑United States confrontation. According to documents obtained by WIRED, the CFTC is reviewing whether traders possessed non‑public information that could have influenced the odds and whether any manipulation of the market occurred.

A third probe expands the scope beyond politics, examining a series of Polymarket trades that appear to correspond with internal developments at Google. Regulators are assessing whether participants may have acted on confidential corporate data, effectively turning the prediction market into a conduit for insider trading.

The inquiries arrive amid growing scrutiny of crypto‑linked prediction markets, which have been criticized for their opacity and potential to amplify misinformation. By investigating specific contracts, the CFTC aims to clarify how existing securities laws apply to these platforms and to deter the use of insider knowledge to profit from speculative bets.

While the CFTC has not announced any enforcement actions, the agency’s statements suggest that the investigations are ongoing and could result in penalties if violations are confirmed. Industry observers note that the moves signal a more aggressive regulatory stance toward digital‑asset markets, and they may prompt Polymarket and similar services to tighten compliance measures, improve transparency, and enhance data‑access controls.