Same‑sex marriages spiked in Brazil after Bolsonaro’s 2018 election, study finds

A new academic analysis of civil‑registry data shows that Brazil experienced a noticeable, though temporary, rise in same‑sex marriages following the 2018 presidential election that brought Jair Bolsonaro to power.

The researchers compared marriage records from the years before and after Bolsonaro’s inauguration and identified a short‑lived increase in the number of unions between same‑sex couples. The surge was most pronounced in municipalities that recorded higher voter turnout during the election, suggesting that the political climate may have prompted a reaction among LGBTQ+ residents.

Bolsonaro’s public statements have frequently targeted LGBTQ+ communities, and his administration has been criticized for rolling back protections for sexual minorities. While the study does not claim a direct causal link, the timing of the spike aligns closely with the period of heightened public debate over the president’s stance on gay rights.

“The data indicate that social and political events can influence personal decisions about marriage,” said one of the study’s co‑authors, who asked to remain unnamed. “When a political figure makes anti‑LGBTQ+ rhetoric prominent, some couples may choose to formalize their relationship as a form of visibility and resistance.”

Historically, Brazil has been a leader in Latin America for recognizing same‑sex unions, legalizing them nationwide in 2013. Yet, the country remains deeply divided, with conservative regions often opposing LGBTQ+ rights. The observed increase in marriages after the 2018 election therefore reflects both the country’s legal framework and the complex social dynamics that accompany a polarizing political figure.

Experts caution that the surge was brief; marriage rates among same‑sex couples returned to pre‑election levels within a year. This pattern suggests that the spike was a reactionary moment rather than a sustained shift in societal attitudes.

The findings add to a growing body of research examining how political rhetoric can impact private behavior. As Brazil approaches its next electoral cycle, scholars anticipate further study to see whether future political developments will produce similar effects on LGBTQ+ communities and whether the temporary increase in marriages will have lasting implications for advocacy and policy.